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I just added a polling function to this web site, and now I’m going to write about the uselessness of polls.
Yes, they’re fun. They give people something to write about when there isn’t any actual news. Probably in some circumstances, they have a worthwhile function.
But political polls? Bunk.
For the better part of the past year, television ‘news’ programs covering the race for U.S. president have been hammering us every day with the latest polling numbers.
What do they mean? Can Trump beat Hillary? Has Rubio moved up on Cruz? Who gets to join the Republican debate in prime time, and who has to be relegated to the kiddy table based on their numbers?
Here’s my prediction: The day after every single primary coming up, at least through Super Tuesday on March 1, there will be stories and talking-heads discussions on the political channels about how this poll or that poll was wrong.
Because they’re always wrong.
Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight gained fame after his research predicted 49 of 50 state results in the 2008 election. That’s right. He made news because, finally, somebody figured out that if you took all the research you could find, averaged it and weighted it and applied some common sense to it, you could come pretty close.
Nobody does that, though. They commission a poll, and they report the results with a variety of caveats and margins of error. It is what it is — a snapshot of the moment, not a prediction of the future.
That’s especially the case in elections, because people aren’t especially truthful. And elections almost always are swung by the Great Undecided.
And polling is even less reliable in primary states that hold caucuses, such as Iowa and Nevada, because people don’t actually vote. They have to go to a political meeting, stand in a corner with other political types and talk politics. If you think that’s somehow representative of the American electorate, then you don’t get out often enough.
Mostly, though, I object to polls because of the way they are used by the news media to create stories out of thin air. They’re a substitute for reporting — on the issues, on the candidates, on public sentiment. They’re the lazy way to cover an election.
Nowadays, it’s almost all we get. Sound bites and poll numbers. We will, indeed, get the elected officials we deserve.
And with that, I think I’ll add a poll to this post.
